Short-Term Bond Fund Commentary
Portfolio Advisor: Industrial Alliance Investment Management
Inc.
Fund Commentary - December 31, 2011
The 2011 economic year ended on a fragile note due to the
European sovereign debt crisis, which is continuing to have
repercussions on financial markets worldwide, overshadowing any
positive economic news. In the second half of 2011, the financial
markets witnessed a significant resurgence in equity market
volatility as concerns of a Greek debt default reached their peak.
Additionally, the market began to focus its attention on Italy
which also experienced a significant increase in their government
bond yields.
With the dramatic spike in equity market volatility in the second
half of 2011, investors sought to place assets in what they
considered safe havens, such as U.S. and Canadian bonds. Bond
yields dropped during the year while prices climbed, pushing up
bond returns. The Canadian bond market, represented by the DEX
Universe Bond Index ended the year up 9.7%. Provincial bonds
offered the best performance in 2011, with a 13.2% return, followed
by federal government bonds at 8.4%, and corporate bonds at 8.2%.
Given the decline in the yield curve, long-term bonds (10 years or
more) offered spectacular performance of 18.1%, followed by
medium-term bonds and short-terms bonds, which posted returns of
10.9% and 4.7% respectively. During the year, the Bank of Canada
kept its target rate at 1.0% as conditions in global financial
markets deteriorated due to the deepening sovereign debt crisis in
Europe. Inflation data remains within the 3% upper limit of the
Bank of Canada's target range. The Bank of Canada has indicated the
next interest rate increase may not come until later in 2012. The
U.S. Federal Reserve has also maintained its low interest rates
policy throughout 2011, indicating that it will keep rates low
until they see sustained economic improvement. Interest rates still
remain low by historical standards.
The Fund underperformed its benchmark index in 2011. The Portfolio
Advisor steered the duration of the Fund actively during a
turbulent year, keeping it generally lower than the benchmark index
during the first quarter and raising it over the index in the
following quarter. In general, the duration positioning of the Fund
proved beneficial as bonds yields continued to decline throughout
the year. The Fund's overweight position in provincial government
bonds and in corporate bonds, as well as the underweight in federal
government bonds was a positive contributor to performance. At the
end of the period, the Fund's duration remains higher than the
benchmark index in anticipation of slower economic growth and lower
short-term (1 to 5 years) interest rates. The Fund maintains an
overweight position in provincial government bonds and an
underweight position in federal government bonds. Municipal bonds
were also purchased during the last quarter of 2011, with the
anticipation the securities would benefit from tighter credit
spreads.