Canadian Balanced Fund Commentary
Portfolio Sub-Advisor: QV Investors Inc.
Fund Commentary - March 31, 2012
Both government and corporate issuers continued their strong
pace of issuance activity during the quarter. The Portfolio
Sub-Advisor increased the Fund's allocation in corporate and
provincial bonds due to their belief that low yields on federal
bonds seemed unsustainable. The Portfolio Sub-Advisor sold, at
profits, some federal bonds to fund this allocation shift.
The Portfolio Sub-Advisor purchased two new issues in the
quarter, a 5-Year, AA-rated Province of Manitoba bond at a yield of
2.02%, and a 5-Year, AA-rated Bank of Nova Scotia bond at a yield
of 2.55%. Despite Manitoba being impacted by severe flooding in
2011, the province continues to target a balanced budget by its
fiscal year 2014/15. The Portfolio Sub-Advisor believes that stable
population growth and a well-diversified economy should help the
province reach this target and improve its debt burden.
The Bank of Nova Scotia improved its regulatory capital ratios
over the quarter with its $1.6B equity issuance. The Canadian
banking industry is preparing itself to abide by the Basel III
regulatory framework by January 2013, which helps to improve
banking resiliency from unpredictable shocks and leads to a
healthier national banking system. The Portfolio Sub-Advisor
believes that each of these new issues adequately compensate
investors for the risks taken.
Equities
Although the Fund began with a conservative cash position of
nearly 7.2%, the Portfolio Sub-Advisor deployed cash over the
quarter to end at 6.1%. The Portfolio Sub-Advisor also removed two
businesses from the Fund, Enerflex Ltd. and TransCanada Corp.
Enerflex is engaged in the design and manufacture of natural gas
compression systems. With its valuation stretched and near-term
growth subdued, the Portfolio Sub-Advisor took the opportunity to
exit the position and reduce cyclical exposure. The Portfolio
Sub-Advisor removed the Fund's position in TransCanada for similar
valuation reasons, including some balance sheet risk.
The Portfolio Sub-Advisor believes attractive businesses still
exist at good value. The Portfolio Sub-Advisor introduced three new
companies to the strategy in the quarter: ATCO Ltd. (ACO.x),
Macdonald Dettwiler & Associates Ltd. (MDA), and Genworth MI
Canada Inc. (MIC).
ATCO is a complement to current Fund holding Canadian Utilities
Ltd. (CU), of which it owns 52.7%. The valuation of CU is
approaching high territory relative to the overall Fund. But
through ATCO the Fund can benefit from CU's regulated utility
operations, and from a diversified portfolio of cash-flow
generating businesses at more reasonable valuation.
MDA provides advanced information solutions to businesses and
governments worldwide. The Company has a cash-rich balance sheet
and has lowered its debt every year since 2008 with plans to
further reduce it annually. The Portfolio Sub-Advisor applauds
management's conservatism in combination with the company's history
of generating double-digit return on equity. Of the 32 businesses
held in the Fund, 27 have increased dividends in the past year. MDA
is one of them. The company pays a dividend that currently yields
2.8%, slightly below the S&P/TSX Composite Index yield of
2.9%.
Genworth is Canada's largest private sector mortgage insurance
provider. The company has a strong franchise built on good capital
ratios and a high-quality portfolio of borrowers. Its valuation
reflects the market's fear and uncertainty around the Canadian
housing sector. The Portfolio Sub-Advisor saw this as an
opportunity to buy a solid business with consistent cash flow to
support and grow its 5.4% dividend yield. Adding Genworth has
assisted in safely improving the Fund's internal yield to 2.8% from
2.6% at the end of Q4 2011.
Shares of SNC-Lavalin, a global engineering and construction
company, dove 23% in late February following news of lower expected
earnings for 2011, including mysterious "period expenses" of $35
million. In mid-March it announced the findings from its
independent investigation surrounding these expenses and another
$20 million that led to the departure of its CEO.
SNC plans to swiftly implement the improvements suggested by its
Audit Committee. SNC's engineering and construction segment is
trading at roughly 11 times its estimated 2012 earnings, compared
to an industry median of around 16 times. It continues to win
projects and grow its revenue backlog in light of current events.
SNC also owns infrastructure assets that produce meaningful and
stable cash flows. The Portfolio Sub-Advisor cannot disregard its
lack of management oversight but is encouraged by the recent action
on the part of the board of directors to rectify its problems of
governance.
Outlook
The Portfolio Sub-Advisor believes that while the business cycle
appears to have some positive momentum, the rate of change in
equity prices in the first quarter is too high to be sustainable.
While relative valuations continue to favour holding more equities
than fixed income securities, the Portfolio Sub-Advisor treads
cautiously as rising interest rates represent a risk to both bonds
and equities.